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An English Patient and a Scottish Project

michaelliebig — Sat, 14 Apr 2012 21:32:30 +0000

by Michael Liebig

Compared with the continuing problems on the “continent,” as the British say, Britain seems to be in good shape. Britain doesn’t belong to the eurozone and doesn’t care much about the next rounds of stressful EU summits in Brussels. Instead, the British prospect is the great spectacle on the occasion of the

IT Security: From Stuxnet to Your Smartphone

michaelliebig — Wed, 22 Feb 2012 21:29:54 +0000

by Michael Liebig

In my last column, I have already pointed out that IT security was an exciting topic at the Feb. 3-5 Munich Security Conference (MSC). This pertains particularly to the remarks by Eugene Kaspersky, CEO of Kaspersky Labs, a leading international company specializing in IT security, and the Gen. Michael Hayden, former head

Russia: The “Cold Friend”

michaelliebig — Fri, 10 Feb 2012 21:26:00 +0000

Russia: The “Cold Friend”

by Michael Liebig

On March 4, 2012, presidential elections will be held in Russia. It seems certain that Putin will win, becoming President for a third term, after the previous two terms 2000-2008 and having been Prime Minister 1999-2000 and 2008-2012. The time span in which Putin has been the most

A “Round Table” for Syria?

michaelliebig — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 21:23:47 +0000

By Michael Liebig

Founded in 1962 by Ewald von Kleist, the Munich Security Conference (MSC) has become probably the leading international event debating security policy. Until 1990, then named Wehrkunde conference, the event was an exclusively “trans-Atlantic” affair. But von Kleist recognized early on that the world was moving towards multipolarity and invited also political

America: Primaries and Military-Strategic Primacy

michaelliebig — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 21:19:00 +0000

America: Primaries and Military-Strategic Primacy

by Michael Liebig

January 2012 is the month of key “primaries” in the United States: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida. In the American electoral system, primaries are the procedure to select a candidate for a political office among competing aspirants within a political party. On the Democratic side, there

The Neo-Nazi Terror Group “NSU” & the 1980 Oktoberfest Bombing

michaelliebig — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 20:27:24 +0000

The Neo-Nazi Terror Group “NSU” & the 1980 Oktoberfest Bombing

by Michael Liebig

After November 4, 2011, the German public has experienced a kind of shock wave. The cause wasn’t yet another twist of the “euro crisis”, but the realization that there was something in Germany that wasn’t supposed to exist. Something for which

Geheimdienste auf dem indischen Subkontinent

michaelliebig — Sat, 17 Dec 2011 14:28:06 +0000

Hein G. Kiessling ISI und R&AW – Die Geheimdienste Pakistans und Indiens Konkurrierende Atommächte, ihre Politik und der internationale Terrorismus Verlag Dr. Köster, Berlin, 2011

Large-Scale IT Sabotage: Fiction or a Real Threat?

michaelliebig — Thu, 08 Dec 2011 20:22:47 +0000

Lessons to be Learned from “LÜKEX 2011”

by Michael Liebig

For most people in Germany and certainly outside of Germany, the word “LÜKEX” makes no sense. The weird word is an acronym designating a national command post exercise dealing with “disaster situations”. Every second year, the crisis management for different disaster scenarios is being

The “Euro Drama” and a Bust on Wall Street

michaelliebig — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 20:20:34 +0000

The “Euro Drama” and a Bust on Wall Street

by Michael Liebig

The first week of November 2011 was an eerie one. The mood in many media outlets, the financial markets and political sphere was almost hysterical. There was the tentative climax of the “Greek tragedy” and the beginning of the “Italian drama”. But

Helmut Schmidt and Giscard d’Estaing: What Needs to be Done After the Brussels EU Summit

michaelliebig — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 20:18:53 +0000

Helmut Schmidt and Giscard d’Estaing: What Needs to be Done After the Brussels EU Summit

By Michael Liebig

The 50% “haircut” of Greece’s debt was inevitable. Most private creditors had already written off their Greek state bonds by that percentage – or more. The € 440 billion “European Financial Stability Facilty” (EFSF) has gotten the

America and China: Strategic “Competition” in the Pacific Escalates

michaelliebig — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 20:16:13 +0000

America and China: Strategic “Competition” in the Pacific Escalates

by Michael Liebig

The American sociologist Immanuel Wallerstein has recently noted that most politicians and media have a strange habit: debating intensely geopolitical developments which turn out to be non-events. Wallerstein listed some recent examples of this geopolitical myopia: “Israel is not going to bomb

“Cyberwar” & Cybersecurity

michaelliebig — Sun, 13 Nov 2011 10:06:32 +0000

On June 16, 2011, the Cyber-Abwehrzentrum – its official English designation is “National Cyber Response Center” – was officially inaugurated in Germany. In the media coverage on the occasion the term “cyberwar” played a prominent role. Indeed, “cyberwar” has become a media catchword – like “star wars” (aka SDI) in the 1980s or “war on terror” after Sept. 11, 2001. However, we should have learned that security – including security in cyberspace – is not exclusively, not even primarily a military matter.

The Berlin Wall: A Lesson in Geopolitics

michaelliebig — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 20:16:52 +0000

The Berlin Wall: A Lesson in Geopolitics

By Michael Liebig

Fifty years ago, on August 13, 1961, the Berlin Wall was built on orders by Soviet leader, Nikita Khrushchev, and East German leader, Walter Ulbricht. Oddly enough, the governments of the United States, Britain and France, which then had the exclusive sovereignty over West-Berlin

“Pirates” in Berlin – Some Thoughts on a New Political Phenomenon

michaelliebig — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 20:29:02 +0000

“Pirates” in Berlin – Some Thoughts on a New Political Phenomenon

by Michael Liebig

Normally, the results of the election for the city parliament of the German capital Berlin would not be matter of major interest – certainly not outside Germany. But the Sept. 18 elections in Berlin produced something quite unusual

9/11: Ten Years After

michaelliebig — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 20:26:54 +0000

9/11: Ten Years After

by Michael Liebig

The shock and the emotional excitement in the United States and worldwide on Sept. 11, 2001, and during the months thereafter, have faded away with time passing. Ten years later, a sober assessment will conclude that 9/11 has not decisively changed the basic trends in

The Political Sociology of Stress

michaelliebig — Thu, 25 Aug 2011 20:22:27 +0000

The Political Sociology of Stress

by Michael Liebig

At a graffiti-painted wall in a run-down building in Frankfurt, I recently read the following sentence: “The Essence of the 21st Century in One Word: Stress”. Well, we ‘re only into the 11th year of the 21st century. And the 20th century with its “hot” and “cold”

Rezension: Deutsch-amerikanische Intelligence Kooperationen

michaelliebig — Fri, 29 Jul 2011 20:49:24 +0000

Anna Daun Auge um Auge? Intelligence-Kooperation in den deutsch-amerikanischen Beziehungen VS Verlag, Wiesbaden, 2011

A Chinese Becomes Deputy Head of the IMF

michaelliebig — Thu, 28 Jul 2011 20:46:52 +0000

by Michael Liebig

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is certainly one of the most influential international institutions. It does matter a lot when the head of the IMF addresses the debt crisis in the United States by demanding that “bold fiscal action” be taken “immediately” to avert “an adverse fiscal shock” with international ramifications.

Germany “Suspends” the Draft

michaelliebig — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 20:43:06 +0000

By Michael Liebig

As of July 1, 2011 mandatory military service is “suspended” in Germany. Now almost all European countries have all-volunteer armies. Was the German move a sensible and overdue adaption to the international security environment? Serious doubts come to mind.

Conscription was not formally abolished because this would have necessitated a change

Expedition in die Grauzone

michaelliebig — Wed, 22 Jun 2011 20:31:21 +0000

Stephan Blancke Private Intelligence Geheimdienstliche Aktivitäten nicht-staatlicher Akteure VS Verlag, Wiesbaden, 2011

Merkel’s Twin-Trip to India and America

michaelliebig — Thu, 16 Jun 2011 20:28:45 +0000

An Object Lesson on the Multipolar World System

by Michael Liebig

During the first week of June, Chancellor Angela Merkel made two state visits: One eastbound to the Indian capital New Delhi and to Singapore, one westbound to Washington, DC. In Delhi, Merkel received the Jawaharlal Nehru Award for International Understanding and in Washington

Money Alone Won’t Solve the Greek Crisis

michaelliebig — Thu, 02 Jun 2011 20:23:59 +0000

By Michael Liebig

In early May, a poll conducted for the magazine stern showed that 43% of the Germans polled oppose German financial aid to Greece, while 51% find it acceptable. On May 26, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung titled an article on the same subject “Swelling Disgruntlement”. However, the disgruntlement is the German population has

Some Thoughts on the “DSK Affair”

michaelliebig — Fri, 20 May 2011 20:21:30 +0000

By Michael Liebig

All in all, Bill Clinton was a good American President. Yet, in 1998 President Clinton was almost impeached because he had an extramarital affair with a young woman, Monica Lewinsky, and had initially lied about it. All in all, Dominque Strauss-Kahn was a good, maybe a very good Managing Director of the

Tzvetan Todorov: Civilization Exists as Civilizations – Why Cultural Multitude is not a “Zero-Sum” Game

michaelliebig — Tue, 21 Dec 2010 20:38:41 +0000

In 2008, the Franco-Bulgarian philosopher Tzvetan Todorov published the book Lapeur des barbares. Au-déla du choc des civilisations. In 2010, English and German translations followed. Reading Todorov’s The Fear of Barbarians: Beyond the Clash of Civilizations is a most inspiring experience. Based on a an enormous breath and depth of knowledge in anthropology, philosophy, sociology

QE 2.0 and the Emerging Multipolar World Monetary System

michaelliebig — Tue, 09 Nov 2010 20:36:10 +0000

When, in a few years from now, political analysts will look back on November 2010, they will likely see it as the moment when the debate over a new multipolar world monetary system became really serious. On Nov. 2, President Obama and Democratic Party suffered severe losses in the US mid-term elections – mainly due to the protracted economic malaise in America. On Nov. 3, the Federal Reserve decided to buy US treasury bonds (and state and municipal bonds) worth $600 billion (a lot more will likely follow). The international answer was unprecedented – in the negative. Then, on Nov. 8, Robert Zoellick, the head of the World Bank and a key figure of the US establishment, suddenly proposed the creation of a “new monetary system”.

Kautilya Who? – Trying to Comprehend India’s “Strategic Culture”

michaelliebig — Mon, 01 Nov 2010 20:31:06 +0000

At the beginning of the 21st century, we see a re-balancing among the major longue durée cultures – Euro-Atlantic, China and India – as the center of gravity of world affairs is shifting towards Asia. This implies the necessity to become (better) acquainted with the internal resources of Indian and Chinese culture. For understanding India's “strategic culture,” Kautilya's opus magnum Arthashastra is of paramount importance.

Geheimdienste in der Systemtransformation von 1989

michaelliebig — Mon, 18 Oct 2010 20:07:32 +0000

Geheimdienste sind ein wichtiger und bei nüchterner Betrachtung auch ein unverzichtbarer Bestandteil der politischen Wirklichkeit. Kein Staat – unabhängig vom politischen Ordnungssystem – verzichtet auf diese Institutionen. Aber die nüchtern-objektive Befassung mit Geheimdiensten bleibt ein schwieriges Pflaster – auch wenn dies im zeitgeschichtlichen Rückblick geschieht.

Greece 2011 & Turkey 2001: The Tale of Two Crises

michaelliebig — Wed, 13 Oct 2010 20:33:40 +0000

By Michael Liebig

In seems almost certain that Greece will get a 50%+ debt cut sometime in 2012, if not earlier. The “haircut” will be painful for the holders of Greek state bonds – in Greece and abroad. But the EU governments, the European Central Bank and the IMF will do whatever

Unintended Consequences – Some Thoughts on the 20th Anniversary of Germany’s Reunification

michaelliebig — Mon, 04 Oct 2010 20:33:44 +0000

October 3, 2010 marked the 20th anniversary of German reunification. The same day, there were Presidential elections in Brazil. Surely, sheer coincidence, but one might also see it as a curious hint at a parallelism of change since 1990. The year of German unification also marked a takeoff point for rising powers like China, India or Brazil. Then, of course, no one saw it that way. German unification ended the bipolar system of two superpowers, it seemed to open up an era of unipolar domination by one superpower, but ultimately marked the beginning of a multipolar world.

Towards a Global Concert of Powers

michaelliebig — Sat, 25 Sep 2010 20:28:35 +0000

Some Observations on the Annual IISS Meeting

by Michael Liebig

Following the 2007-09 financial-economic crisis, the concept of a multipolar world (and multiple connectivity embedded within it) has gained broad acceptance. The denial of multipolarity became unsustainable when the economies of China, India and Brazil withstood the crisis, which had originated in the USA

Is There Something to Be Learned from Switzerland?

michaelliebig — Sun, 12 Sep 2010 20:25:38 +0000

On October 14, 2010, the northern and southern tunnel piercings of the Gotthard Base Tunnel are scheduled to meet. The construction of the world's longest rail tunnel is an occasion to have a look at Switzerland – a country full of idiosyncrasies. But, compared to its neighbors, things in Switzerland seem to work out notably well.

Is There a Way Out of the Monetary and Fiscal Cul-de-Sac?

michaelliebig — Sat, 28 Aug 2010 20:20:15 +0000

The background to this year's central bankers' gathering in Jackson Hole is a grim reality: Policies of unprecedented fiscal and monetary super-stimulus have not uplifted the real economy. Instead, they undermine and put in question sovereign credit. Is it conceivable that a “Hamiltonian reflex” will emerge in the USA? Can fiscal and monetary consolidation converge with a productive alignment towards the economic dynamic in Asia and Latin America?

All Quiet on the European Front?

michaelliebig — Mon, 16 Aug 2010 21:58:38 +0000

In May and June, many mainstream media and “experts” were telling you that Europe was facing imminent disaster: A chain reaction of state bankruptcies in Southern Europe would blow apart the euro currency system and throw the euro zone, if not the whole continent into an economic depression. Merely two months later, the situation looks rather different.

Der amerikanische Geheimdienst-Komplex vor schwierigen Zeiten

michaelliebig — Mon, 16 Aug 2010 19:56:25 +0000

CIA-Direktor Leon Panetta hat eingeräumt, dass die Vereinigten Staaten mit einem Haushaltsdefizit von 1,5 Billionen Dollar „gegen die Wand fahren“. Die Kosten für den gigantischen amerikanischen Geheimdienst-Sicherheits-Komplex – mit mehr als 800.000 Akteuren – sind unerschwinglich geworden. Dies ist der Hintergrund der aktuellen Debatte über die Dysfunktionalität und Ineffizienz des amerikanischen Geheimdienst-Systems.

Trouble Ahead for the American Intelligence “Bazaar”

michaelliebig — Sun, 25 Jul 2010 20:23:08 +0000

CIA Director Leon Panetta has acknowledged that with a $1.5 trillion budget deficit the United States are going to “hit the wall”. The costs for the giant American intelligence-security complex – employing more than 800,000 people – have become unaffordable. This is the background to the current debate over the dysfunction and inefficiency of the American intelligence system.

Indien – Ein Schlüsselakteur in der multipolaren Welt – Probleme und Perspektiven

michaelliebig — Wed, 14 Jul 2010 19:44:07 +0000

Ein Gespräch mit Dr. Hans-Georg Wieck Nach seiner Tätigkeit als Botschafter in Teheran, Moskau und bei der NATO in Brüssel sowie als Präsident des Bundesnachrichtendienstes war Wieck von 1990 bis 1993 deutscher Botschafter in Indien. Von 1996 bis 2008 war er Vorsitzender der Deutsch-Indischen Gesellschaft. In einer Vielzahl von Aufsätzen und Reden hat sich Wieck mit der inneren Entwicklung und den Außenbeziehungen Indiens beschäftigt. Das folgende Interview mit Solon-line fand am 1. Juli 2010 in Berlin statt; die Fragen stellte

Disenchantment with Politics

michaelliebig — Tue, 29 Jun 2010 21:53:51 +0000

Not only in respect to the financial crisis and its consequences, the people sense that the political class is unwilling and/or incapable to explain how and why policy choices have been made. Consequently, there is widespread frustration with politics. By its submission to the imperatives of the mass media, the political class has almost eliminated the public discourse on the contents of strategic political issues – and thereby undercut its claim for political leadership.

Austerity in “Old Europe”

michaelliebig — Tue, 15 Jun 2010 21:49:55 +0000

The current wave of fiscal austerity across Europe, should not have surprised anyone. While the insistence on social justice is warranted, excessive state debt is also a symptom of basic demographic shifts impacting society, economy and social security systems. A re-definition of “work life” seems to open up the chance of preserving social security systems.

Towards a New Trans-Cultural Modernity – The Symposium “Cultures Intertwined: Another Enlightenment” in Berlin

michaelliebig — Wed, 09 Jun 2010 21:56:26 +0000

On June 30, 2010, Christian Wulff, the former christian-democratic Governor of Lower Saxonia, was elected German President, succeeding Horst Köhler who had suddenly resigned in May. It was a hot day in Berlin and it took almost nine hours and three electoral rounds until Wulff received the necessary majority. Wulff is a typical representative of Germany's political class: clever, good-looking, eloquent and politically experienced. And that's it.

The US National Security Strategy, “Smart Power” & Karl Mannheim

michaelliebig — Tue, 01 Jun 2010 21:51:56 +0000

While the European Union is still reeling from the “Greece”/“Euro” crisis and Asia is facing a nasty conflict escalation on the Korean Peninsula and a social-political crisis in Thailand, it seems things are going well for the United States. The seemingly bright picture is only disturbed by the catastrophic oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico which will have ugly environmental, economic and political consequences for months to come. Looking beyond the headlines, there was an another important event in Washington on May 27, 2010: The release of the “National Security Strategy” of the United States[1]. Barely covered in the mainstream media, NSS 2010 provides key insights into the strategic thinking of the Obama Administration.

(Preliminary) Lessons from the “Euro Crisis”

michaelliebig — Thu, 20 May 2010 21:47:42 +0000

Slowly the smoke is clearing over the “Euro battlefield”. The speculative “war of aggression” against the Eurozone, as the head of the German Financial Supervisory Agency (Bafin), Jochen Sanio, put it on May 5, seems to have topped out. The pundits are proclaiming that the battle was lost by Europe and the euro. Supposedly, the status of the euro as a world reserve currency has been irreparably damaged, while the US dollar has asserted its role as “the” world reserve currency and safe haven for angst-driven investors.

Just North of Greece

michaelliebig — Sun, 09 May 2010 21:45:12 +0000

The focus on the crisis over Greece has eclipsed important geopolitical and geo-economic developments in the neighboring Balkans region. South Eastern Europe and the Adriatic Sea have become a crucial area of transit for trade between Europe and Asia. And China is positioning itself as an important player in the Balkans.

Not Long Ago: A Really Scary Story

michaelliebig — Mon, 26 Apr 2010 21:42:08 +0000

When assessing current events, it's quite helpful to situate them in a historical context. Often, looking back just a few decades will suffice. Between 1981 and 1985, the world stood at brink of nuclear war by paranoid miscalculation. Benjamin B. Fischer's historical essay The Soviet-American War Scare of the 1980s rovides frightening, but also reassuring insights.

Intelligence Analysis Demystified

michaelliebig — Sat, 17 Apr 2010 21:40:03 +0000

Is strategic intelligence – the comprehensive analysis and assessment of international relations (in political, economic and security terms) – a matter of “craft” and “intuition”? Or is there a cognitive methodology in intelligence analysis, which approximates scientific standards like reliability and validity? 61 years ago, the American historian and intelligence analyst Sherman Kent wrote a book making the case for the latter. This “old” book deserves the status of mandatory reading for serious journalists, private sector analysts or political scientists.

Iteration in World Politics

michaelliebig — Sun, 04 Apr 2010 21:37:51 +0000

Iteration is a way of advancing step by step, in successive efforts of testing and adaption. The current world political configuration seems to favor or even necessitate iterative approaches. In the multipolar world system, actors with decisive leverage to bring about “quick fixes” or alternatively ruptures seem to be absent. One area where iteration is evident is security policy notably including US military strategy. The upcoming BRIC Summit in Brasilia is another example. By Michael Liebig

With a Little Help from Max Weber – The American Ideology and the Puritan Puzzle

michaelliebig — Sat, 20 Mar 2010 21:35:23 +0000

When trying to assess the current situation of the United States, the focus usually is on economic and geopolitical factors. But there is an ideological dimension too. Sociology of religion, in particular Max Weber's work on Puritan sects in America, can be helpful for a better understanding of the “American mindset”.

Beyond Greece: The Inflation Debate – The IMF’s Blanchard vs. the Bundesbank

michaelliebig — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 20:29:10 +0000

The "Greek crisis" has become the catalyst for long overdue regulation of derivatives speculation. As Western governments will have to raise $4 trillion in 2010, speculation against sovereign debt simply cannot be tolerated any longer. But the next big issue of financial policy is already on the table: "Controlled" inflation as an instrument of crisis management. That is what the IMF's chief economist is recommending. Not only the Bundesbank is not amused.

Behind the Hype over Greece

michaelliebig — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 20:31:49 +0000

Since the beginning of the year 2010, the Anglo-American and also continental European mainstream media have been indulging in the financial and fiscal woes of Greece. If we believe the media, Greece is tottering at the brink of state bankruptcy and might detonate the European Monetary Union (EMU). Moreover, we are told, not only Greece but the whole southern belt of the Eurozone – Portugal, Spain and Italy – has become a financial and fiscal disaster area. One should add however that the hype over Greece is accompanied by massive currency speculation against the euro and by a massive speculation drive with respect to “credit default swaps” (CDS). The “global players” of international finance are back to the very speculation practices which caused the 2007/08 financial crisis. If there's one sensible conclusion from the “Greek affair”: States must finally get tough on financial regulation. This is as important for their credibility as fiscal discipline.

The 2010 Munich Security Conference: China Enters the Scene

michaelliebig — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 20:26:48 +0000

The atmosphere at this year's Munich Security Conference seemed stressful: Probably too many sticky security problems internationally – not to speak of the financial and fiscal problems within the “West”. And, on top of this, new, rising powers are joining the premier league of global security actors. While speaking softly in Munich, the Chinese Foreign Minister put forward new rules of the game for global security.

“New Normal”: The Return of Power Symmetry in Global Affairs

michaelliebig — Sun, 31 Jan 2010 20:23:57 +0000

Reportedly, at the 2010 “World Economic Forum” in Davos, the informal motto is “new normal”. However, this catchword is not supposed to mean that there is a return to the “normality” of the “anything goes” decade prior to the financial crisis. Of course, many financial actors in the USA and Europe are indeed trying to go back to the paradigm of financial speculation with no regard for the real economy. However, I venture the forecast that this attempt will fail. Why? Because another “financial crisis” of the the type we have seen in 2007-08 would not only blow the financial system, but would demolish the whole Western societal “system.” And the political class does know that. Moreover, the Western finance class is the prime “loser” of the new power symmetry in world politics.

“Controlled Inflation“ as Exit Strategy?

michaelliebig — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 20:21:12 +0000

In 2010, a key issue of the political agenda in Euro-Atlantic space will be the costs of the financial crisis. Governmental debt has exploded because of bank bailouts and support measures for the real economy driven into deep recession by the financial crisis. How should the immense state indebtedness – often at ratios of 100% of GDP or even higher – be brought down to manageable levels? Progressive public debt reduction by the growth of the real economy? Or by “controlled” inflation, which “devalues” national debt and state expenses – in particular social expenses?

The Reconfiguration of the World Economy – and Germany’s Geo-Economic Readjustment

michaelliebig — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 20:15:49 +0000

In 2009, we have witnessed a “world in transition.” The global economic-financial system has not disintegrated, as many feared a year ago, but both the world economy and the global political system are being profoundly transformed. Old habits have become unsustainable – and are indeed being replaced by new attitudes.

Back to the Future: The Humboldt University System & the “Bologna Reforms”

michaelliebig — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 20:18:36 +0000

The most important production factor in any economy is the quality of its labour force, which decisively depends on the quality of primary, vocational and higher education. The key criterion for the quality of university education is whether it provides students with the intellectual capacity to contribute to the generation of scientific and technological innovations. The Humboldt university system, with its characteristic symbiosis of teaching and research, has that quality. But in 1999, the “Bologna reforms,” subjecting German universities to American “management methods,” were launched. These “reforms” have undermined the foundations of both the university system itself and the German economy.

From Berlin to Brazil

michaelliebig — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 20:10:09 +0000

The 20th anniversary of fall of the Berlin Wall, should be an occasion to think about the enormous changes that have occurred in world politics over the past two decades. New “leading powers” have emerged on the world political stage. Strengthening and upgrading relations with these new leading powers is of paramount importance for Germany's foreign policy. The “German Institute for International and Security Affairs” (SWP) seems to think that way.

A Discovery at the Frankfurt Book Fair

michaelliebig — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 20:13:19 +0000

Much of the literature on international affairs, not to speak of the mainstream media, exhibit clear symptoms of cognitive dissonance: The mental map of world political constellations does not correspond to the reality of a multipolar world system. But there are therapeutic remedies. One is reading Reinhard Hildebrandt’s new book American Hegemony – Global Ambitions

The Lisbon Treaty, the German Constitutional Court & New Franco-German Initiatives

michaelliebig — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 20:00:13 +0000

In the context of the ongoing power shifts in the world economy and the world political system, some observers have voiced the opinion that the European Union will be the main “loser” in the new setting of world affairs. Before rushing to premature answers on this question, one should take a closer look at some quite significant developments that have occurred recently within the EU.

Parteien, Zivilgesellschaft & Wissenschaft – Anmerkungen zur Bundestagswahl

michaelliebig — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 20:19:14 +0000

Mit den Bundestagswahlen am 27. September 2009 ist das jahrzehntelange Duopol der „Volksparteien“ CDU/CSU und SPD durch ein komplexes Fünfparteiensystem abgelöst worden. Mit der neuen Bundesregierung von CDU/CSU und FDP dürfte sich an den Grundlinien der deutschen Außen- und Innenpolitik sich zunächst nicht viel ändern – was kein Nachteil sein muss. Der Niedergang der Volksparteien offenbart die tiefe Kluft zwischen den politischen Parteien und der Zivilgesellschaft. Durch diese Kluft sind die Parteien, nicht nur die Volksparteien, einer geistig-politischen Sterilität anheim gefallen. Es droht den Parteien ein selbstverschuldetes Abdriften in den politischen Autismus, denn neue, zukunftsweisende Ideen werden im zivilgesellschaftlichen und wissenschaftlichen Diskurs erzeugt.

Some Thoughts on the German Elections and the Pittsburgh G20 Summit

michaelliebig — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 20:46:39 +0000

The September the 27th, Bundestag elections in Germany and the G20 summit in Pittsburgh two days earlier have something in common. Both events feature polycentrism. In Pittsburgh, the G20 was formally institutionalized the as new – polycentric – framework for directing world economic and financial affairs. In Germany, the decade-long duopol of a center-right and a center-left party has been replaced by a much more diversified and complex five-party system.

Joseph. A. Schumpeter und die Krise

michaelliebig — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 20:15:52 +0000

Unbestritten ist, dass Joseph A. Schumpeter einer der bedeutendsten Ökonomen des 20. Jahrhunderts war. Gerade angesichts der aktuellen Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise wäre eine Rückbesinnung auf seinen wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Beitrag überaus sinnvoll. Nun ist Schumpeters 1000-seitiges Hauptwerk Konjunkturzyklen, das für ein angemessenes Verständnis der Krise besonders wichtig ist, keine leichte Lektüre. Im Folgenden wird versucht, die Kernelemente der Schumpeterschen Theorie der Konjunkturzyklen herauszuarbeiten.

What’s Wrong with “European Universalism”?

michaelliebig — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 20:41:28 +0000

Even well-educated and culturally sensitive people often remain caught within a frame of mind which seems "self-evident" to them. But epistemologies – popular or elitist – are shaped by particular, historical contexts. When particular, historical epistemologies are being proclaimed as "universal," problems are preprogrammed. That’s why "European universalism" is a critically important issue in the multipolar world, which needs new cultural and civilizational syntheses. The writings of the American social scientist Immanual Wallerstein can help to clarify this matter.

Willkommen im „Club“?

michaelliebig — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 20:13:05 +0000

Am 26. Juli 2009 erfolgte in Anwesenheit des indischen Ministerpräsidenten Mahoman Singh der Stapellauf des ersten in Indien gebauten Atomunterseebootes Arihant. Dieses Atom-U-Boot verfügt nicht nur über einen nuklearen Antrieb, sondern wird auch mit nuklearen Fernraketen bestückt sein. Auch Brasilien baut jetzt sein erstes Atomunterseeboot. Ökonomisch, politisch und kulturell-zivilisatorisch ist die Welt längst multipolar geworden. Doch wie sieht es in Bezug auf die sicherheitspolitische Weltlage aus? Verschieben sich durch die „aufstrebenden“ Mächte nun auch die militärischen Kräfteverhältnisse in der Welt?

Welcome to the “Club”

michaelliebig — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 20:43:52 +0000

On July 26, 2009, India’s the first nuclear submarine was launched in the presence of Indian Prime Minister Mahoman Singh. The Arihant is a SSBN – meaning a submarine with nuclear propulsion and armed with long-range nuclear missiles. Also, Brazil is building its first nuclear submarine. Economically, politically and in cultural-civilizational terms, the world has become multipolar. Now we are seeing that the “emerging” powers are beginning to impact the global security architecture, too.

„Europäischer Universalismus“ – Gibt es da ein Problem?

michaelliebig — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 20:35:30 +0000

Auch gebildete Menschen, die andere Kulturen kennen, bleiben oft in einer „Weltanschauung“ gefangen, die ihnen so selbstverständlich erscheint, dass sie als „alternativlos“ empfunden wird. Aber alle Weltanschauungen – egal ob volkstümlich oder elitär – sind durch besondere historische Umstände bestimmt. Wenn nun solche partikulären Epistemologien als „universal“ deklariert werden, dann sind Probleme vorprogrammiert. Und deshalb ist der europäische Universalismus in der multipolaren Welt ein ernstes Problem. Auf der Suche nach neuen kulturell-zivilisatorischen Synthesen – einer multiplen, global verwobenen Moderne – sind die Beiträge des amerikanischen Sozialwissenschaftlers Immanuel Wallerstein hilfreich.

Ein „smarter“ NATO-Generalsekretär

michaelliebig — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 20:53:31 +0000

Der politische Hintergrund des neuen NATO-Generalsekretärs und früheren dänischen Ministerpräsidenten Rasmussen ist komplexer als es auf den ersten Blick erscheinen mag. Unter seiner Ägide soll die NATO nun eine neues „strategisches Konzept“ bekommen. Diesem wollen die Amerikaner ihre „Smart Power“-Doktrin aufdrücken. Aber die NATO wird nicht an der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise und ihren Folgen vorbeikommen.

A “Smart” NATO Secretary General

michaelliebig — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 20:36:16 +0000

The political background of NATO’s new Secretary General, the former Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen, is more complex than it may seems. He is facing the task of articulating a “new strategic concept” for NATO. The Americans want to shape this document along the lines of their new “smart power” doctrine. But above all, NATO has to face the impact of the financial-economic crisis.

Atomraketen, Panzer und „IEDs“ – Eine Militärgeschichte des „langen 20. Jahrhunderts“

michaelliebig — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 20:38:21 +0000

Am 23 Juni 2009 stellte der israelische Militärhistoriker Martin van Creveld in Dresden die deutsche Ausgabe seines seines Buches „The Changing Face of War – Lessons of Combat from the Marne to Iraq“ vor. Im folgenden eine Rezension von „Gesichter des Krieges“*

Nuclear Rockets, Tanks and “IEDs” – A Military History of the „Long 20th Century“

michaelliebig — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 20:30:39 +0000

On June 23, 2009, the Israeli military historian Martin van Creveld presented the German edition of his his book " The Changing Face of War - Lessons of Combat from the Marne to Iraq" in Dresden. Following is a review of the book.

The Real Issue of the G8/G5 Summit in L’Aquila

michaelliebig — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 20:33:43 +0000

In L’Aquila an era has ended which began 34 years ago in Rambouillet near Paris. The trilateral “World Economic Summits” of the USA, Europe and Japan are history. Now China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Mexico and the G8 are meeting “on an equal footing”. The G8 has become the “G8/G5”. Inevitably, the question arises why the US dollar should remain the single world reserve currency?

Is BRIC Triggering “New Thinking”?

michaelliebig — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 20:39:28 +0000

The BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India, and China – are no longer content with being invited to the G20 and G8 summits by the West. They just held their own BRIC summit in Yekaterinburg. And the London Economist has discovered that the BRIC economies have “decoupled” from the crisis in the West. Indeed, they have decoupled, but not just in economic and financial terms.

Towards a Multiple and Globally Intertwined Modernity

michaelliebig — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 20:25:46 +0000

The western military mission in Afghanistan is at a dead end. This should be an occasion for some basic reconsiderations of the assumptions underlying this deployment: Can the „western model“ be forced upon putatively "subaltern" peoples and states? No, in a world which has become multipolar also in civilizational terms, this is no longer possible. Instead, it’s necessary to understand that the world is on the way towards a multiple and globally intertwined modernity.

A New Type of Global Order?

michaelliebig — Sun, 10 May 2009 20:28:03 +0000

That the world has become multipolar is a truism. But what about a multipolar world order? This question was raised at a forum of the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF)/Hessische Stiftung Friedens- und Konfliktforschung (HSFK). The discussion about “The World Order of the 21st Century” yielded some refreshing and unconventional ideas. “Power” is more than

Some Thoughts on this Year’s Hanover Fair

michaelliebig — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 20:23:25 +0000

The inherent “driver” of the capitalist economy is innovations. When basic innovation reach their saturation phase, the economy goes into a crisis, until new innovations are realized, transforming the economy. This transition process is painful and usually takes the form of recession. That much for the real economy. Things get really nasty when on top of this, pent up financial speculation implodes. Unwinding the financial mess is essentially a matter of political will. Overcoming the crisis in the real economy, however, necessitates the realization of basic innovations creating new production methods, products and employment. The world’s largest manufacturing fair in Hanover, is a good opportunity to think about innovations as being the key for the way out of the crisis.

From the Thames to the Rhine

michaelliebig — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 20:20:15 +0000

The stated purpose of the G 20 Summit on April 2, 2009 was laying the foundations for a new global financial architecture, which should prevent the recurrence of financial excesses and ensuing crises of the type we are currently experiencing. Do the results of G 20 Summit measure up to this goal? Are those right who say: “Much ado about nothing?” No, the world financial system is indeed being transformed, albeit in ways which seem puzzling at first sight.

Geheimdienste und Intelligence-Kooperation in Europa

michaelliebig — Thu, 09 Apr 2009 14:37:31 +0000

Im März 2009 erschien der von den Kölner Politikwissenschaftlern Thomas Jäger und Anna Daun herausgegebene Band Geheimdienste in Europa – Transformation, Kooperation und Kontrolle. Wer einen fundierten Überblick über die ziemlich zerklüftete „nachrichtendienstliche Landschaft“ in Europa sucht und mehr über die Probleme und Möglichkeiten ihrer Zusammenarbeit erfahren will, wird hier gut bedient. Das Buch kann dazu beitragen, die Arbeit der geheimen Nachrichtendienste nüchtern und sachlich zu betrachten, denn ohne solide und möglichst realitätsnahe Lagebeurteilung, die auch das einschließt, was nicht öffentlich zugänglich ist, kann es kein vernünftiges politisches Handeln gaben. Das gilt nicht nur für die Nationalstaaten, sondern auch für die Europäische Union in der multipolaren Welt.

China’s Initiative for a New World Monetary System

michaelliebig — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 20:31:14 +0000

Just before the beginning of the G-20 Financial Summit in London, China has launched an initative which aims at replacing the US dollar as the global reserve currency. According to the plan, the IMF’s “Special Drawing Rights” will become the reserve currency of the world monetary system in the near tearm, in the longer-term a supranational, “commodity-based” currency, derived from John Maynard Keynes “Bancor” concept, will assume that role. Russia’s proposals for a new financial architecture point in a similiar direction. Preliminary reactions from politicians and economists in Europe and Latin America have been cautious, but open-minded, while President Obama sees “no need” for a new world reserve currency. No doubt, China has kicked off a discussion which won’t go away.

“Merchants of Hysteria”: The Case of Der Spiegel’s Gabor Steingart

michaelliebig — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 20:27:22 +0000

Until quite recently, Chancellor Merkel’s calm, but efficient political professionalism was widely praised by the Anglo-American and German media. Now these same media circles are assailing her as dull, petty minded and ineffective in dealing with the financial-economic crisis. Of particular significance, in this media campaign is Der Spiegel’s correspondent in Washington, Gabor Steingart.

The Opel/GM Crisis as Pars pro Toto

michaelliebig — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 20:24:39 +0000

The current international economic-financial crisis has not indiscriminately flattened out macroeconomic and manufacturing conditions across the globe. Crisis conditions differ and the pathways for recovery out of crisis will differ in national economies and regional combines. American “stimulus” policies are certainly no model for the rest of the world. The traffic signs on the road to recovery are policies based on concerted state and private efforts for technological innovation, science and education, and modernizing hard and soft infrastructures.

List, Schumpeter & Lautenbach vs. the „Merchants of Hysteria“

michaelliebig — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 20:14:09 +0000

In the United States, the Obama administration is launching a giant $850 billion Keynesian “stimulus” package. At the same time, the banks are escalating their pressure on the state to create a “bad bank” for some trillions of “toxic assets.” The state “bad bank” scheme would mean the socialization of privately incurred speculative losses – and probably a state bankruptcy. Instead of frantic activism, the following question must be addressed: What can the state do to promote and encourage scientific-technological and social policy innovations, that generate sustainable investments, employment and growth in the real economy? In Germany, three books – by Friedrich List, Joseph A. Schumpeter and Hans Schaeffer – have been (re-)published which open up new avenues of thinking for answering this question.

The 2009 Intelligence Picture: Not Grey on Grey

michaelliebig — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 20:07:31 +0000

Gloom has become fashionable in the media world, yet the real world is much more colourful. In some parts of the world, the financial-economic crisis has touched off a depressive state of mind, often combined with frantic hyperactivity, but other actors on the world scene are calmly changing the rules of the game which have led to the current mess.

The Crisis and the Multipolar World System

michaelliebig — Sat, 27 Dec 2008 20:25:57 +0000

From Dec. 7-12, 2008, the Seminar “Crise – Rumos & Verdades” took place in Curitiba, Brazil. The seminar dealt with the financial and economic crisis and its implication for Brazil. Participants included senior political figures, economists, and business leaders from Brazil and other Latin American countries. Also participating were economists and political analysts from Russia, USA, Italy, Britain and Germany. Here we publish the contribution to the seminar by Michael Liebig

And What About a New Security Architecture?

michaelliebig — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 20:00:49 +0000

The fact that the world needs a new financial and economic architecture can no longer be disputed. The G-20 World Financial Summit on Nov. 15, 2008 is a first, but crucially important step for overcoming the failed G-7 mechanism and the “Washington consensus”. Yet, the need for a new international security architecture – starting with the space “from Vancover to Vladivostok” – is at least as pressing as is the need for a new financial and economic architecture. A new security architecture must include fresh approaches to nuclear weaponry, non-proliferation and foreign military bases.

Looking at the Crisis “From Above” Kondratiev, Schumpeter and the “Long Waves” of Economic Development

michaelliebig — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 19:57:26 +0000

Beyond immediate crisis management, the design work for a new and sustainable global economic order and financial architecture necessesitates new conceptual approaches in economic theory. Such “new thinking” must be more than a mere negation of discredited neo-liberalism. Most relevant here are two 20th century economists: Joseph Schumpeter and Nikolai Kondratiev.

By Michael Liebig

Who will lead the world?

michaelliebig — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 19:51:51 +0000

It is a sign of the times when the BMW Foundation makes this question the theme of her annual conference on international affairs. The financial crisis has greatly accelerated geopolitical shifts. The ASEM Summit in Bejing, ahead of the G-20 World Financial Conference, has demonstrated that indeed tectonic shifts are underway in international relations.

Financial Arson, Fire Protection & the Real Economy

michaelliebig — Thu, 16 Oct 2008 16:54:48 +0000

The financial crisis was bad enough before the US government let Lehman go bankrupt. Thereafter, panic took over, necessitating unprecedented emergence action by European governments. But at the same time, an International Financial Summit for a new multipolar financial architecture has been put on the agenda by the European Union. What is still missing, is concerted action for the protection and stimulation of Europe's real economy.

Financial Crisis: Beyond the „Fog of War“

michaelliebig — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 19:39:06 +0000

Confidence has collapsed in the world financial system. Crisis management now means, first of all, panic suppression. But first elements of a new, regulated and multipolar financial system are emerging. And, there are indications that internationally coordinated infrastructure investment programs are being considered to prevent the financial crisis from turning into a depression of the real economy.

Entering a new Era

michaelliebig — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 16:51:23 +0000

The escalation of the American financial crisis during September translates into the end of the era of post-modern financial capitalism. The crisis is generating a new relationship between market and state, finance and the real economy. The fact the issue of a “new multipolar architecture” for the international financial system is becoming a central issue among the world’s leading governments, is not only indicated by the speech of French president Sarkozy before the UN General Assembly.

The US Financial Crisis and the „Decoupling“ Debate in Europe

michaelliebig — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 16:48:01 +0000

The serial bankruptcies on Wall Street are a reality shock for those in Europe who thought the American financial-economic crisis could be pushed under carpet during the US presidential election campaign. Now a debate is underway whether Europe can “decouple” from the crisis in America or not. Protecting Europe is doable, but it necessitates a lot more than financial crisis management.

Political Reason or Hysteria

michaelliebig — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 16:43:37 +0000

If there were a lasting deterioration of Russian-European relations, Germany would bear the damage – economically and politically. Not to speak of the “tertius gaudens”. Neither a mentally unstable Georgian president, nor American attempts to deflect from their own problems – the economy, Iraq and Afghanistan, nor Russian attitudes of defiance, nor russophobe newspaper writers should hinder Germany to do what is in her national interest.

The Caucasus: Bloody Fighting and Realpolitik

michaelliebig — Sat, 09 Aug 2008 16:36:03 +0000

The attempt by Georgian President Saaskashvili to reconquer South Ossetia was a fatal miscalculation. Russia has struck back militarily and Georgia has lost South Ossetia and Abchasia just as Serbia lost Kosovo. Weakened by its economic-financial crisis, Washington, Saaskashvili’s main sponsor, is forced to adopt a realpolitik stance.

Obama, Gorbi and Fannie Mae

michaelliebig — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 16:40:06 +0000

During his visit to Berlin, Barak Obama came across as a foreign policy “realist.” Much of his foreign policy design remains vague, but his readiness for equitable trans-Atlantic cooperation seems genuine – it’s dictated by the self-interest of the United States in midst of a massive strategic and economic and financial crisis.

The Kissinger-Steinmeier Debate

michaelliebig — Sat, 12 Jul 2008 16:27:57 +0000

In Berlin, on July 4, Henry Kissinger and German Foreign Minister Steinmeier presented key elements of their respective foreign policy “agendas.” The emerging “new realism” in America, which will be the hallmark of the next administration, and the policy views of the other major actors in world politics are certainly not congruent. Finding a compromise will be a truly tough job.
by Michael Liebig
Weiterlesen

The irish referendum: More than meets the eye

michaelliebig — Fri, 20 Jun 2008 16:32:27 +0000
When the key organizer of the Irish "no" vote against the Lisbon treaty is a free market-pushing, neo-conservative millionaire with close ties to the American military and intelligence community, one begins wonder. Will the Irish vote paralyze the European Union at a time when the new power centers of the multipolar world are preparing their "agenda" to be presented to the next US president?
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Financial Markets Cannot Govern Us

michaelliebig — Sun, 01 Jun 2008 21:10:08 +0000
During the past two weeks, German President Köhler and former Chancellor Schmidt, together with 16 elder statesmen from across Europe, have taken an extraordinary initiative in respect to the financial crisis and the need to promote a model of “decent capitalism” for the world economy and the global financial system.
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Beyond the “G-8”

michaelliebig — Sat, 24 May 2008 21:07:39 +0000
When Germans hear about the „Big Four,“ they tend to think of the four victorious powers of World War II. But, the term will likely gain a new meaning: BRIC, standing for Brazil, Russia, India and China. All four powers are truly big in terms of population, territory and economic potential. And, along with the United States and the European Union, they also form the “premier league” of world politics.
Weiterlesen

National Security, Intelligence & the “Curveball Affair”

michaelliebig — Mon, 12 May 2008 21:05:03 +0000
In German public opinion, the intelligence services seem to exist mainly as the makers of ever new “scandals”. Harsh verdicts by politicians across the party spectrum usually accompany such intelligence “scandals”. But concerning a recent, very special “intelligence scandal” – the “Curveball” affair – the political class has remained silent.
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We and our systems failed

michaelliebig — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 21:02:13 +0000
On April 23, 2008, the annual meeting of the Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) took place. Many of the 4000 shareholders assembled in Basel were in a state of high agitation, attacking the UBS management which had literally vaporized 27 billion euros ($38 billion) since the last general meeting (and further write-offs are quite likely). Only a few months ago, screaming and yelling at the general meeting of the biggest Swiss bank would have been completely inconceivable. But with the financial crisis, things have profoundly changed – also in Switzerland.
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The Bucharest Summit: NATO’s Curious “Transformation”

michaelliebig — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 20:59:26 +0000
In the run-up to the April 2-4 NATO summit in Bucharest there was some talk, particularly in some “progressive” media, that this gathering would mark another dangerous step towards “military confrontation with Russia”, the “militarisation of the European Union,” or even an adoption of the American “preventive nuclear war” doctrine (NSS-2001) as “NATO doctrine.”
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“Smart Power” Decends on Munich Security Conference

michaelliebig — Sat, 09 Feb 2008 20:19:56 +0000
In 2007, the intervention of Russian President Putin dominated the Munich Security Conference. This year, it was the Obama admininistration’s “smart power” foreign policy, presented by a high-powered US delegation. Vice President Biden’s speech stood at the center of attention, but Joseph Nye explained what American “smart power” really means – which is not exactly what most people think it is.
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Alter Wein in neuen Schläuchen

michaelliebig — Fri, 08 Feb 2008 07:41:00 +0000
Während die Welt auf den amerikanischen Vorwahlkampf und die Wahlkampfrhetorik der Präsidentschaftsaspiranten schaut, startet das US-Establishment „Versuchsballone", die erkennen lassen, wie die US-Außenpolitik ab dem Jahre 2009 aussehen könnte. Ein solcher "Versuchsballon" ist der Artikel von Parag Khanna in der New York Times vom 27. Januar 2008, der den durchaus missverständlichen Titel trägt: "Abschied von der Vorherrschaft".
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Amerika: Die “verlorenen Jahre” der Ära Bush

michaelliebig — Tue, 15 Jan 2008 20:12:12 +0000
Die Vereinigten Staaten stehen heute vor einem ganzen Bündel schwerer Krisen: Ein verlorener Krieg im Irak, das Scheitern der Iran-Politik, beispielsloser Ansehensverlust, schwere Finanzkrise und eine Rezession. Gibt es hier Ähnlichkeiten mit der Existenzkrise der Sowjetunion in den 1980er Jahren? Und was sind die Unterschiede? Was die schonungslose Einschätzung der eigenen Lage und notwendige Reform- und Sanierungsstrategien betrifft, so trifft sicherlich auch für Amerika Gorbatschows Ausspruch zu: "Wer zu spät kommt, den bestraft das Leben".
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