During Spring 2010, parliamentary and presidential elections were held in Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia. Dr. Jan Carnogursky, the former Slovak Prime Minister, analyzes the new government, led by Iveta Radicova, in his home country.

By Dr. Ján Čarnogurský

Introduction by Elisabeth Hellenbroich

The following article by the former Prime Minster and Justice Minister of Slovakia, Dr. Ján Čarnogurský, gives an interesting insight into the situation in Slovakia after the June 12 parliamentary elections.

The former socialist government under Prime Minister Robert Fico was replaced by a new four-party, liberal-conservative coalition under the new Prime Minister Iveta Radiĉová. Parallel to the elections in the Republic of Slovakia, parliamentary elections took place in the Czech Republic, resulting in a new conservative- liberal government under Prime Minister Petr Necas.

Parliamentary elections also occurred in Hungary during April/May, where after 8 years the ruling socialist government was voted out of power. A new conservative- liberal government coalition came into power under the new Prime Minister Viktor Orbán from the FIDESZ party which won an 2/3 majority in parliament. Orbán had already served as Prime Minister from 1998 to 2002, has formed a government consisting of his own party FIDESZ and the small Christian Democratic Party KDNP. The third largest political force in Hungary is the extreme right wing party Jobbik, which won 17% of the votes and is known for its racist and revisionist positions.

The main problem which the new government under Orbán has to face is Hungary’s huge public indebtness. At the height of the global financial crash in autumn 2008, Hungary received an IMF emergency credit line of 20 billion Euro, in order to avert a national bancruptcy. The Orban government is now facing almost difficult task when trying to implement the IMF conditionalities. It has called for radical economic and financial reforms, part of which is the plan to limit the budget deficit to 3,8% of the GDP. The Orban government also wants to impose a “special tax” on banks, insurance and financial companies in the dimension of approximately 700 million Euro. In order to promote economic growth it intends to lower the taxation of Hungarian businesses as well as reducet the flat tax to 16% .

“Stability”, “ unity” “ social coherence” – are the political catch words in Poland where, in the second round of presidential elections, Boreslaw Komorowski from the liberal conservative party “Civic Platform” (PO) to which also the Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk belongs, was elected President with 53,1 % against 46,9% of his competitor Jaroslaw Kaczynski from the national – conservative party PiS whose family decends from Lithuanian nobility, was very active in the underground movement Solidarnocz. His victory has been interpreted as a very positive sign by many Western European governments, such as Germany and France. Like the Hungarian government under Viktor Orbán and the Slovak government under Iveta Radicôvá, the new Polish President Komorowksi stands for stability, and a constructive pro-European orientation.

Ján Čarnogurský: The New Slovak Cabinet

The parliamentary elections held on June 12, 2010 in the Slovak Republic resulted in a radical cabinet reshuffle. Although the left-wing party led by ruling Prime Minister Róbert Fico received most votes, one of his coalition partners failed to re-enter parliament, and the other partner re-entered Parliament with the minimum number of seats. Consequently, Róbert Fico was unable to form a new cabinet.

Based on the election results, a new government has been formed by four centre-right parties with Iveta Radičová being sworn in as the first female Prime Minister of Slovakia. Radičová is a professor of Sociology and in 2003-2004 was the Minister of Labour and Social Affairs. Her presence in the government during that period had a positive rating.

Mikuláš Dzurinda, the former Prime Minister (1998 – 2006), retains his position as the leader of the party that nominated Iveta Radičová as Prime Minister. Shortly before the elections, however, he had been unable to explain his party’s financing and consequently he had to surrender the position of election leader to Iveta Radičová. Mikuláš Dzurinda was appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs in the new Slovak cabinet.

The coalition partners of Radičová’s Slovak Democratic and Christian Union party (SDKÚ-DS) are the Christian Democrats (KDH), Freedom and Solidarity (SaS) – a new liberal party - and the new Slovak-Hungarian party Most-Híd.

The new cabinet has yet to come to power but has already been hoisted with its own petard. In the final phase of the election campaign, the then-opposition parties, i.e. the present coalition partners, took issue with Slovakia’s participation in supporting the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) to avoid a re-occurrence of the Greek crisis. Although Róbert Fico, the previous Prime Minister, had approved Slovakia’s participation in the EFSF, after the results of the elections became known he refused to continue the process and left it to the new cabinet. The new cabinet has immediately been put under pressure by EU countries to continue the EFSF formation process. The first communication between the new cabinet in Bratislava and Brussels was far from being the best.

In foreign policy terms, the new cabinet is closer to the USA, however, it is unable to move the Atlantic Ocean. The Slovak Prime Minister and the Czech Prime Minister exchanged their traditional début foreign visits.

In addition to the new cabinet, the post-election Slovak political scene experienced two changes that will go down in history, at least in the footnotes. The party led by Vladimír Mečiar, the former Prime Minister, who dominated the Slovak political scene in the 1990s, did not enter Parliament. His party failed to obtain a minimum 5 % of the votes so it appears that Vladimír Mečiar’s days in politics are over.

Another important outcome is the voting of the Hungarian minority that constitutes around 10% of the local population. The traditional party representing the Hungarian minority – the Party of the Hungarian Coalition (SMK) – profiled itself as a willing instrument in Viktor Orbán’s hands in Budapest, and its appearance on the Slovak political scene seemed to be deliberately confrontational. Béla Bugár, a moderate politician who led the party, has been replaced by Pál Csáky – more radical and more inclined to Hungarian nationalism. Béla Bugár has been active in parliamentary politics in Slovakia since the Velvet Revolution (1989) and is also quite popular with Slovak voters. Less than a year before the elections, Béla Bugár established the new Most – Híd political party and defined their program as building bridges between Slovaks and Hungarians. Csáky’s SMK failed to enter Parliament, while Bugár’s Most – Híd won 8 % of the vote and its Parliament and cabinet seats will be filled by both Slovaks and Hungarians. The electoral results for SMK and Most – Híd clearly demonstrate that on one hand the Hungarian minority in Slovakia does not favour a confrontational political party, and on the other hand a party with a conservative and liberal program managed to bring Slovaks and Hungarians together.

The new cabinet will have to put its relations with Brussels into order, as well as putting matters right in the Slovak economy and financial area. For the first quarter of 2010, Slovakia reported the fastest economic growth in the EU, although the unemployment rate is 12 % and the state deficit for 2010 is expected to be 7 %. Foreign observers will have the opportunity to form a judgement about developments in Slovak politics based on the following: whether Slovakia will retain the 19 % flat tax rate or whether the rate will be increased or decreased; in foreign policy the key issues are whether Slovakia recognises the independence of Kosovo; and future interstate relations developments between Bratislava and Budapest.

This article by Dr. Carnogusky was previously published by Ria Novosti, Moscow

Further articles by Ján Čarnogurský can be found here.

Copyright of the picture: public domain (LINK)